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Air cargo demand for 2024 surpassed the record volumes set in 2021 by 0.5%, driven by high e-commerce volumes and constraints in ocean shipping.

Strong Year-Over-Year Growth

According to IATA’s full-year data, demand—measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK)—grew by 11.3% compared to 2023. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), also increased by 7.4% year-over-year.

Yield Trends and Capacity Expansion

Despite the growth in demand, full-year yields averaged 1.6% lower than in 2023, though they remained 39% higher than in 2019. Cargo capacity in December was 3.7% above December 2023 levels, and cargo yields were 6.6% higher than December 2023 and 53.4% higher than December 2019.

December Demand and 17 Consecutive Months of Growth

While growth slowed in November, December saw a continued upward trend, with global CTK rising 6.1% year-over-year (YoY)—marking 17 consecutive months of growth. Seasonally adjusted, demand showed a moderate 0.9% month-on-month increase.

IATA Highlights Strong Performance Amid Challenges

“Air cargo was the standout performer in 2024, with airlines moving more freight than ever before. Demand, up 11.3% year-on-year, was fueled by strong e-commerce and ocean shipping disruptions,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

He added that airspace restrictions on long-haul Asia routes kept yields high, despite softening from their 2021-2022 peaks.

Geopolitical and Economic Pressures Impacting the Industry

IATA’s year-end analysis noted that air cargo showed resilience despite global challenges:

• Airspace restrictions due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East increased fuel costs.
• Security threats led to heightened measures, causing delays and backlogs.
• National elections in 73 countries created political uncertainty, impacting economic confidence.
• Capacity constraints and rising interest rates influenced overall industry performance.

Outlook for 2025: Growth and Uncertainty

IATA forecasts a 5.8% demand growth in 2025, but warns that geopolitical instability could affect performance.

“Economic fundamentals remain strong—oil prices are declining, and trade is expanding,” said Walsh. However, manufacturing and export slowdowns pose risks:

• The Manufacturing Output PMI (49.2) and New Export Orders PMI (48.2) fell below the critical 50 mark, signaling contraction.
• Inflation rose in the US (2.9%) and EU (2.7%), while China’s consumer inflation fell to 0.1%, indicating economic concerns.

Regional Performance Breakdown

Asia Pacific Leads Global Growth

• Demand: +14.5% YoY (highest of all regions)
• Capacity: +11.3% YoY
• December demand: +8.4%, capacity +6.3%

North America Sees the Slowest Growth

• Demand: +6.6% (lowest of all regions)
• Capacity: +3.4%
• December demand: +5.3%, capacity +2.1%

Europe Shows Solid Performance

• Demand: +11.2% YoY
• Capacity: +7.8%
• December demand: +5.1%, capacity +3.7%

Middle East Maintains Strong Growth

• Demand: +13% YoY
• Capacity: +5.5%
• December demand: +3.3%, capacity +0.2%

Latin America Achieves Double-Digit Growth

• Demand: +12.6% YoY
• Capacity: +7.9%
• December demand: +10.9% (highest of all regions), capacity +8.4%

Africa Faces Declining December Demand

• Demand: +8.5% YoY
• Capacity: +13.6%
• December demand: -0.9% (lowest of all regions), capacity +1.8%

E-Commerce Continues to Drive Air Cargo Expansion

International air cargo traffic remained strong for the 17th consecutive month, with a 7% YoY increase in December.

IATA emphasized that airlines continue to benefit from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe, especially amid ongoing ocean shipping capacity constraints.

Source: AirCargoNews